How did Israel’s intelligence agencies miss this attack?
How Israel – one of the most security-conscious states on the globe – failed to see this attack coming, how it underestimated its enemy, and what it means for the Middle East and the world.
They say history never repeats itself, but the Palestinian "invasion" of southern Israel has similarities with the start of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 – both then and now, the Israeli security forces were caught napping and found themselves on the back foot, after lightning strikes they never saw coming. Here, I look at the biggest security crisis Israel has faced for fifty years.
This was Israel’s 9/11 moment, a shocking breakout of fighters from Gaza and a killing spree which is being felt globally.
In terms of casualties per head of population, the Israeli deaths would equate to losses from the al-Qaeda atrocities of more than 20,000, according to some experts. A stark demonstration of how hard the small state of Israel has been hit.
It's a shocking scenario, primarily because of the bloodshed, horror, loss of life and the achingly awful thought of the scores of men, women and children who have been kidnapped.
But as Israeli Defence Force's mopping up operation inevitably kills the Hamas fighters, people will demand to know how it could have happened.
How on earth did Israel’s intelligence agencies Mossad and Shin Bet miss the build-up of the attack, an incredibly well-timed, supported air, sea and land operation?
Firstly, the security surrounding Gaza at the Erez Crossing, which I have passed through a few times, was believed so tight it would be impossible to break through.
Surveillance systems were apparently jammed in the countdown to the attack and as thousands of rockets passed over, fighters approached the fence and wall system.
If they had jamming systems, who gave them to Hamas?
Sophisticated explosives blasted through barriers and soldiers were slaughtered or seized in shock, as Hamas launched its lightning strike.
Even boats and para-gliders were used to enter Israel and, it seems, fighters seized civilians and even a senior Israeli commander, as if they knew exactly where to find him.
As Hamas poured through the security walls it is also believed lorries of grenades and ammunition followed behind them, in a sophisticated logistics chain.
It seems the fighters may even have homed in on a senior commander’s home, indicating perhaps some intelligence-gathering help from inside Israel.
Where did all of these modern-day capabilities come from?
It would be impossible for these fighters to train in the open without being seen by Israeli drones so they were probably taught outside Gaza, likely by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria or Lebanon.
Thousands of rockets were infiltrated into Gaza over months, along with weapons systems and ammunition.
All of this intense activity, supplies being transported and possibly surveillance operations inside Israel scoping targets, should have left a major footprint of rumour, gossip, even phone communications - all useful intelligence waiting to be picked up by intelligence officers via their agents.
But it all was missed and a perfect storm of complacency, political disarray in Israel, a Jewish festival leading to low staffing on the border and highly motivated fighters allowed the attack to happen.
Cruelly circulated images and video of naked corpses dragged into Gaza and those of terrified Israelis being frog-marched into captivity sparked immediate condemnation.
Pictures of dead men and women lying in streets and people kidnapped have left Israel wondering how this could have happened.
Waves of panic spread swiftly through Israel and even this morning the fighting continues as Israeli troops try to wipe out remaining Hamas fighters in the south.
From the north, Hezbollah, a far better equipped and armed group, has fired guided missiles and artillery into Israel - presenting a second flashpoint for the country.
Special forces have been deployed to the northern border to try and bolster the frontier between Israel and Lebanon, whilst there is concern of an intifada from the West Bank.
Israel’s troops are concentrating first on tracking down the Hamas gunmen and then will have to plug the gaps in the security wall on Gaza’s border. And after that, depending on what happens with Lebanon and the West Bank, Israel is likely to massively step up attacks on Gaza’s Hamas group.
This attack has Iran’s fingerprints plastered all over it and a wider conflict with Tehran has been building up for many years, because of its support for Hezbollah and Hamas. It is not entirely inconceivable Israel will consider strikes on Iranian targets.
Seized Hamas gunmen will be heavily interrogated for information on where the weapons came from, who trained them and where. It is likely those interrogations and other post-attack intelligence operations will reveal Iran’s involvement.
But for the time being and crucially, Israel’s special forces will be considering a rescue operation to find those taken back into Gaza. This will mean a ground attack which will result in hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths.
The kidnap victims apparently have been secreted in ready-prepared tunnels and hideouts throughout Gaza so it is an immensely difficult task with an enormously high risk of fatalities.
But Hamas has had its spectacular moment, just as al-Qaeda had with 9/11. And the escalation of years of cycles of violence that will probably follow is probably for them, mission accomplished, just as 9/11 was for bin Laden.
Thank you
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Let me know your thoughts in the comments and see you next week,
Chris