How the world is shaping up for more or less war in 2025

It will be a year of contradictions, competition between ceasefire and war, intense political intrigue and global insecurity - in 2025, it would do well to avoid World War III

Hello and welcome to Hostile World with Chris Hughes, a weekly newsletter about the world of defence and geopolitics. You can subscribe here and follow me on Twitter @defencechris. Thank you!

Panoramic view of the Earth, sun, star and galaxy. Sunrise over planet Earth, view from space. (Photo: NASA)

Both the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East are likely to see ceasefire talks, but conflict in both will likely trundle on with exhausting regularity for months, if not for the entire year.

As elsewhere in the world, allies rally and take sides - Britain will probably come under attack increasingly in cyberland, possibly from an Islamic State terror threat.

Ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine - with a new Trump administration playing a key role - will take place, but any deal will be fragile.

Even as I write this, 2025 has already started with an ominous event. US FBI agents have launched a manhunt for anyone linked to the apparently ISIS-inspired New Orleans terrorist who killed at least ten on New Year’s Day.

And what happens in the States is often mirrored in the U.K.

With an American retreat into protectionism and a decreased interest in helping Europe, the UK may find itself having to step up further in the Ukraine war.

The sticking point for Russian President Vladimir Putin will be Ukraine’s red-line of demanding NATO guarantees of security for Kyiv.