One more step towards a major war - possibly even global

An on the ground update from Israel on the possibility of war - and is Iran already adopting more traditional, possibly deniable, terror methods to undermine Israel?

Hello and welcome to Hostile World with Chris Hughes, a weekly newsletter about the world of defence and geopolitics. You can subscribe here and follow me on Twitter @defencechris. Thank you!

Mirror Reporter Chris Hughes on the ground in Israel (Image: Phil Harris)

View from the border

In the past week I have travelled throughout Israel, between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and all the way up north to the Upper Galilee.

Towns in the north such as Kiryat Shmona, where Hezbollah missiles are hitting daily, are virtual ghost communities, abandoned by evacuees.

In cities such as Tel Aviv there are thousands of Israeli refugees from the north, among some 70,000 who have been forced to flee the Hezbollah barrages.

Many in the north, such as long-time friend Shadi Khaloul, believe war against Hezbollah is inevitable and perhaps badly-needed, to stop the missiles.

Shadi, a Christian Maronite former Israeli Paratrooper and who lives in the border town of Jish, tells me: “They cannot be trusted and whilst nobody wants all-out war, Hezbollah has to be stopped.”

It is particularly tragic in this beautiful but blighted region that people of Shadi’s faith and ethnicity are split by the militarised border between Israel and Lebanon.

“They are my people over there, the Maronites but many have been forced to move by the Hezbollah,” he tells me, as we overlook the Lebanon border - not for too long.

You can stand on a hill looking down on the Lebanon border for a few seconds, a brief window before Hezbollah’s snipers and anti-tank teams have time to home in on you.

Locals here have been living like that for months.

This week, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, said the military’s ‘centre of gravity’ is gradually transitioning from the Gaza Strip to the northern front, amid preparations for a major escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Visiting the Israel Defence Force’s 36^th Division in the north, he said: “Our centre of gravity is moving from south to north, we are in a gradual change, we have more tasks in the south, we have hostages, we need to bring them, we are negotiating on this and I believe we will succeed in reaching results, this is a very important thing…We want to return the displaced residents to the north, we want to return them safely. If it is possible to do this in an agreement, we will do it in an agreement."