Putin does NOT want an end to war
What Putin really wants is an end to Ukraine.
Hello and welcome to Hostile World with Chris Hughes, a weekly newsletter about the world of defence and geopolitics. You can subscribe here and follow me on Twitter @defencechris. Thank you!
US President Donald Trump’s tsunami of shock-diplomacy, controversial decisions and bellicose threats has thus far, to the horror of US allies, missed out Russia.
Every day he grabs hold of the news agenda, scrubs off yesterday’s front pages and makes a greedy grab for the latest news hook, devouring bulletins with gusto.
It is almost as if he is mirroring that old Kremlin technique of bombarding adversaries with misinformation at such a rate that it is impossible to keep up with the pace.
By the time you have fact checked one outrageous claim, you’ve been blasted by another salvo of foul play obfuscation that covers-up the latest lies.
It serves another purpose too - hit the media with a series of shocks daily so the real earthquake you want to set off is less impactful when it actually happens.
There has been talk of sanctions against Russia, but nothing substantial, and this has been marred by White House efforts to deny Russia started the war on Ukraine.
As I write, there are reports of more overnight devastation against Ukraine imposed by a wave of some 135 kamikaze drones, at least half of them shot down.
And Russian forces are pressing forward with their frontline battle to drive Ukraine’s military occupation inside Kursk back over the border.
Ukraine could be losing leverage in these so-called peace talks, literally by the hour, and Trump is playing with Kyiv’s future whilst refusing to blame Russia.
Latest reports suggest Steve Witkoff, Trump’s property agent turned envoy, is in Russia hearing Kremlin demands for a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has agreed to peace in principle but Kremlin demands are so far, I hear, way too much to be accepted by Kyiv, starting with no NATO troops in Ukraine.
Putin is also apparently demanding no NATO membership for Ukraine, permanent global recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea and four other Ukrainian regions.
As all of this drama is happening Ukrainian civilians are being injured and killed by Putin’s air strikes, soldiers are dying on the frontline and the fighting is becoming more intense.
The border Sumy region of Ukraine has been hammered overnight by at least 30 drone attacks and Moscow is going to play hardball in these negotiations.
It is impossible to imagine what Witkoff can say to Putin or his minions that will give the Russian leader an off-ramp to end the war and appease Ukraine, whilst refusing to give him what he wants.
Unless, he really is carrying some kind of alignment with Russia message from Trump and something much more sinister is going on behind-the-scenes.
Weapons supplies to Ukraine have been unblocked by Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is probably returning to Washington some time soon.
But the major sticking point to all of this is that Putin simply does not want an end to the war.
Put plainly and simply, he only wants an end to Ukraine.
Any agreement he settles on will be broken by him soon after, covered by a false flag operation where he insists Ukraine broke the deal first.
And that is why the West is insisting on a security backstop inside Ukraine provided by NATO with or without the US.
Quite how Witkoff will get round that will be interesting to see but if we don’t see a war of words, an anti-Putin outburst from Trump soon, there must be talk of treason.
He has been daily pivoting towards the Kremlin and away from NATO for weeks now.
If he does what many suspect he will do - issue overt support for Putin’s demands and blame Ukraine again for refusing to accept Putin’s demands and end the war - Europe and the UK will know it is alone in facing the Kremlin threat.
Could America control UK warplanes?
There has been much talk over whether the UK’s F35-B fast jets - the world’s most sophisticated fighter- could be remotely ended by the US.
It is unclear what President Trump’s intentions towards NATO are, but many fear he will pivot so far the other way that could align with Russia.
Unthinkable it is but if it did happen could the US have a ‘kill switch’ to turn off US built F35’s, rendering them inoperable in a future conflict?
According to the news site TWZ - shorthand for “The War Zone” - US aerospace and defence manufacturer Lockheed Martin has pushed back on the ‘kill switch’ theory.
The truth appears to be less scary on the face of it, perhaps a little banal, but you don’t need such a ‘switch,’ the US could just stop working with us.
TMZ says: “The stark reality is that a dedicated kill switch is not needed to keep foreign F-35s from being able to perform what they were designed to do.
“Just cutting off support to the jets would accomplish the same result, albeit maybe not instantly, but soon enough.”
Cutting off support would very quickly, we are told, render the F-35 fleet unusable and these are the fighters that may in any conflict take off from the UK’s aircraft carriers.
Even if they could take off without actual support from the US, TMZ tells us: “any jets that remain flying for a truncated period of time would only be able to do so with massively degraded capabilities.”
Asked about this recently Belgian Chief of Defence Gen.Frederick Vansina said recently: “We have no indication that this is possible.
“The F-35 is not a remote-controlled aircraft. The program relies on worldwide logistical support, with spare parts circulating between user countries.”
And the Swiss Department of Defence said on this subject: “It is not possible to ‘remotely control’ or ‘block’ the F-35A fighter jets, for example by external intervention in the electronics.
“Switzerland does not need consent if it wants to use its weapons systems or guided missiles for its own defense.
“It can do this autonomously, independently, and at any time.”
This must apply also to the UK, however questions remain over how a US halt in supply of spares or support for warplanes would damage the UK’s ability to defend itself.
And the F-35B is just one example of this.
Thank you
I hope you’ve enjoyed my latest newsletter. If you have been forwarded this email and would like to sign up, you can do that right here.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and see you next week,
Chris