What Trump's victory means for Ukraine, Israel and more
This week I'm looking at how global leaders will be jostling for attention and plotting how to use Trump's win to their advantage.
Hello and welcome to Hostile World with Chris Hughes, a weekly newsletter about the world of defence and geopolitics. You can subscribe here and follow me on Twitter @defencechris. Thank you!
The Trump Presidency has sent shockwaves around the world, prompting global leaders to jostle for attention and plot how to use it to their advantage.
From the Middle East across Asia to Russia, Europe and Africa the ripples of what Trump does in the coming months will be loathed and loved in equal measure.
And with major wars being fought in eastern Europe and the Middle East how Trump handles them could dramatically change the course of history.
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin will welcome the seismic election news as major leverage for his war in Ukraine and his ambitions throughout eastern Europe.
Many Republicans do not support backing Ukraine because of the cost and Trump’s leaning towards isolationism may persuade him to reduce or remove support for Kyiv.
In the coming weeks we are likely to see a major push by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine as Moscow tries to gain leverage in the war in preparation for a settlement.
Ukraine
Putin is already pitting thousands of North Korean troops against Ukraine’s military, which is holding a bridgehead inside Russia in Kursk where fighting is bitter.
President Zelensky’s troops are exhausted but are holding out against a slow Russian advance in the east but we may see a huge surge in the deployment of North Korean soldiers.
North Korea
It is a huge gamble for Pyongyang despot Kim Jong-Un as footage of captured and wounded North Korean soldiers is already trickling onto the internet - and it is not a good look.
However, his coffers are being swollen to the tune of around £1,500 a-month per soldier so that may influence another request from Vladimir Putin to send more reinforcements.
From North Korea we are likely to see more talk of nuclear missile tests and bellicose threats towards the US, which cannot be taken too seriously as Kim tries to gain attention.
NATO and the UK
The biggest headache for the UK in the short-term is how Trump will treat Ukraine and NATO which he believes should be contributing more to maintaining global security.
Matthew Savill, Military Sciences Director at the UK’s leading defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute told me: "A Trump victory creates considerable uncertainty for both Ukraine and its other international partners.
“But his desire for a deal – and probably a quick one – does not bode well for sustained US support, especially with the current pressure on Ukraine. Trump will have to contend with Congress, but there is significant scepticism about Ukraine amongst many Republicans, and a general US focus towards China.
"Russia will see this as an incentive to keep on pressing home its advantage in numbers. Meanwhile, Europe and NATO as an institution should consider where they can take on more, while President Biden might choose in his last months in office to use the remainder of the funding available for support to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, amounting to over $5 billion."
Ed Arnold, RUSI's Senior Research Fellow for European Security added: "The immediate crisis within Europe will be how to continue diplomatic, military and humanitarian support to Ukraine without the US.
“Whichever mechanism it comes through – NATO, the EU, or bilaterally – it will be incredibly expensive.”
Trump’s leadership will be met with mixed feelings across swathes of the Middle East despite his campaign pledge of being able to end the various wars.
Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s relentless military push in Gaza, the West Bank and neighbouring Lebanon is likely to be backed by Trump.
And as the Middle East is bracing for Iran’s expected attack in the latest tit-for-tat missile exchange with Israel, it may bring the event forward.
Iran
Tehran is likely to be more nervous of a Trump administration because it was the new President who tore up the 2015 nuclear agreement signed by several world powers.
It slapped major limitations on Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for relief from sanctions - until Trump withdrew from it in 2018, opening the way for Tehran secretly to restart its nuke programme.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI’s senior Middle East Security research fellow, told me: "Topping a complex list of unknowns is how much leverage Trump will have over Netanyahu, and the extent to which he will manifest that leverage to end Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, contain regional conflict spillover, and deliver sustainable political settlements.
"On the Iran file, while Iranian President Pezeshkian has indicated a willingness to re-engage with the West to ease sanctions and improve the country’s bleak economic forecast, Trump will be unlikely to ‘reset’ his unflinching take on Iran.
"It is difficult to see how a Trump administration will pivot to improve the situation for Palestinians.
“Trump in recent weeks indicated that he was prepared to give Israel freer rein, provided that the war ended by the time he entered office.”
During Trump’s last presidency there were many senior intelligence and military figures working within the US administration who had worked alongside UK counterparts.
Contacts between the two countries were solid, forged on the frontline against espionage, war and terrorism globally.
But agencies like the CIA witnessed a mass walkout caused by the chaos and immaturity of the Trump administration.
Matthew Savill added: "The UK’s record of understanding and influencing Trump – based on his first term – is poor, and a second Trump administration will have fewer senior figures in it with any sort of affinity for the UK.”
China
Militarily China has made no secret of its desire to take over Taiwan and many believe this will happen in the next several years.
This will be a priority for Trump to tackle.
Ed Arnold, RUSI's Senior Research Fellow for European Security told me: "A second Trump Presidency will cause concern in the region about disruption flowing from intensification of the 'America first' principle in US trade policy. Economic policy has always been a weakness of the US ‘pivot’ to the Indo-Pacific, and the Trump victory may widen the economic divide across the Pacific.
"American allies in the region will anticipate renewed pressure to contribute more for their security. Leaders will seek to establish good personal relations with the President elect to make a good case for stable relations, and to control the risk of sharp changes of direction.
"Competition with China is likely to be the priority of a second Trump term and shape security policy in the region, but the intention will be to avoid conflict under an approach of 'peace through strength'."
Crucially, Trump will be tempted to withdraw US troops from places such as Syria and Iraq where special forces have been training local security officers in tackling terrorism.
This could have huge implications for the UK.
As I revealed last year in an interview in Baghdad with an Iraqi special forces commander, Islamic State is constantly plotting to persuade UK militants to launch an attack.
And any diversion of resources from resurgent ISIS fighters represents a danger to the UK.
Thank you
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Let me know your thoughts in the comments and see you next week,
Chris