When does a proxy war become overt?
Hello and welcome to Hostile World with Chris Hughes, a weekly newsletter about the world of defence and geopolitics. You can subscribe here and follow me on Twitter @defencechris. Thank you!
Iran’s latest barrage of ballistic missiles has further proved it is willing to break out of the proxy conflicts it has enjoyed against Israel and the US since the 1980’s.
Previously, Iran has relied upon the extensions of its military, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Yemeni Houthis and groups in Iraq, and even its shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in covert foreign missions.
But in order to keep these groups in line - in order to keep them loyal and active, no matter how battered from Israel’s airstrikes - it has to show it is willing to become overtly involved.
Israel’s last reaction to Iran’s largely unsuccessful bombardment in April was considered globally to be a little lame, but this time PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said Iran “will pay.”
He is under pressure to target Iran’s nuclear programme, calculating that it has to be done some time - so why not now, when its proxies are so damaged?
At the same time one of the reasons Iran has been reluctant to deploy Hezbollah and its “Radwan” special forces on the ground into Israel has been preservation.
Hezbollah is Iran’s immensely potent force right on Israel’s doorstep, far more powerful and dangerous than Hamas has ever been.
In 20 years, Iran has developed a relatively secure supply route from Tehran, across Iraq, Syria and into Lebanon, projecting its leverage against Israel.
But it is believed that Iran did not want to sacrifice or use Hezbollah wholesale against Israel until it reached the point of being able to use nuclear weapons.
Iran always knew that without this, it cannot possibly defeat Israel because of its powerful ally in the United States.
Israel has campaigned ruthlessly to thwart Iran’s nuclear programme, assassinating scientists and nuclear-related officials with daring plots.
This has always been undercover, undeclared and covert - with boffins’ cars blown up by motorcyclists using “sticky bombs” - one even machine gunned to death by remote control.
But now Iran may have gone way too far in this latest attack, which could have been far worse if just one missile had hit an apartment block or unleashed significant damage on a military base.
This is the time where, without one side climbing down, all proxy wars reach an incredibly dangerous breakout point and become overt.
The proxy wars have been fought for years and now been largely lost by Iran - the red lines of overt attacks have been crossed and a new era of war in the Middle East has begun.
Because neither side can now back down.
The question is to what extent the US and even allies such as the UK will be willing to become involved in war with Iran?
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calculation is likely that the West will have little choice but to back a campaign against Iran as he seizes Israel’s moment.
Israel has tried for years behind the scenes to get countries like the UK more involved against Iran - and to wield this as a major threat towards Tehran.
But Iran has allies too in Russia, North Korea and even perhaps China - and if the west does become more involved, their next move too will be crucial.
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Chris
You are right about Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Yemeni Houthis and groups in Iraq, and even its shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps all being a coalition of terror against Isreal but the UK is also on the list of countries being blamed for intelligence gathering for isreal among the coalition of terrorists in encrypted apps for the last few weeks.
Yemeni Houthis offical statements I have seen blame the UK equal Partnerships with USA as backers of isreali operations against Palestinians. This can only mean one thing British interests will if they can be hit by this evil coalition of terror sooner than we or our political institutions might think.
The partnership of hate among shia and Sunni groups over Palestinian is weak but if these sides were to unite over Palestinian issue's remember the grandfathers of the jihad had the same objectives of a Palestinian state without Jew's or Christian's.
Many isis terrorists see Iraqi groups as enemy's over battles in Iraq but they also are speaking about Palestinians in gaza and isreal the founding grandfathers of isis and Al-Qeada spiritual leader to Bin Laden was a Palestinian. Dangerous times a head for the world especially if Sunni Shia both decide to attack isreal and its partners.
With one of the biggest oil and gas reserves in the world with Russia it would be better to change the Iranian government then unite Iranians against isreal.